BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-// - ECPv5.3.1//NONSGML v1.0//EN
CALSCALE:GREGORIAN
METHOD:PUBLISH
X-ORIGINAL-URL:https://aarms.math.ca
X-WR-CALDESC:Events for 
BEGIN:VTIMEZONE
TZID:America/Halifax
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZOFFSETFROM:-0400
TZOFFSETTO:-0300
TZNAME:ADT
DTSTART:20200308T060000
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZOFFSETFROM:-0300
TZOFFSETTO:-0400
TZNAME:AST
DTSTART:20201101T050000
END:STANDARD
END:VTIMEZONE
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/Halifax:20200715T150000
DTEND;TZID=America/Halifax:20200715T163000
DTSTAMP:20260609T070748
CREATED:20200615T150024Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20200703T130123Z
UID:5151-1594825200-1594830600@aarms.math.ca
SUMMARY:AARMS COVID-19 Seminar:  Sana Jahedi (UNB) and James A. Yorke (Maryland)
DESCRIPTION:When the best pandemic models are the simplest\nAs a pandemic of coronavirus spreads across the globe\, people debate policies to mitigate its severity. \nMany complex\, highly detailed models have been developed to help policy setters make better decisions. However\, the basis of these models is unlikely to be understood by non-experts. \nWe describe the advantages of simple models for covid-19. We say a model is “simple’’ if its only parameter is the rate of contact between people in the population. Such models can be understood by a broad audience\, and thus can be helpful in explaining the policy decisions to the public. They can be used to evaluate outcomes of different policy strategies. However\, simple models have a disadvantage when dealing with inhomogeneous populations. \nTo augment the power of a simple model to evaluate complicated situations\, we add what we call “satellite’’ equations that do not change the original model. \nTo compare simple models with complex models\, we introduce our “slightly complex’’ Model J. We find the conclusions of simple and complex models can be quite similar. But\, for each added complexity\, a modeler may have to choose additional parameter values for which there is often little rationale but that can have a big impact on predictions. Our simulations suggest that the added complexity offers little predictive advantage. \nThis is a virtual zoom seminar.  If you would like to attend\, please email the organizers for connection details.
URL:https://aarms.math.ca/event/aarms-covid-19-seminar-2020-07-15/
LOCATION:Zoom seminar
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR