COVID-19 modelling in New Brunswick and elsewhere

We present a simple differential equation based model of the COVID-19 pandemic that allows for time-evolving social distancing.  We apply the model to the first 80 days of the pandemic in 24 different jurisdictions to quantify the effectiveness of government lockdowns in March 2020.  Using Bayesian methods, we then estimate model parameters relevant to the current outbreak in New Brunswick.

This is a virtual zoom seminar.  If you would like to attend, please email the organizers for connection details.  All times are given in the Atlantic timezone.