The Covid-19 modeling experience in Prince Edward Island

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, Atlantic Canada and particularly PEI, has experienced a low number of cases with limited community spread. This epidemiological situation has created some unique and challenging opportunities for the modelers to address the questions of interest posed by public health officers.

A simple SEIR model was developed to assess the magnitude of the consequences in terms of hospitalizations, PPE, and bed requirements under a set of scenarios that could potentially happen if community spread starts to occur in the region. The model was based on differential equations and included features such as reduction of contact rates, self isolation, contact tracing, and quarantine. It also allows assessing the impact on different testing strategies and test requirements to control the outbreak.

Also, a Bayesian model was also developed to assess the probability that the province was free of virus circulation given the testing carried out by the government.

During this seminar will discuss how the model and modeling team addressed some of the questions of interest and describe in [some] details the mathematical models developed by the team.

• Dr. Karen Phillips is an Epidemiologist at the Chief Public Health Office, Prince Edward Island Department of Health and Wellness
• Dr. Javier Sanchez is a Professor of Epidemiology at the Atlantic Veterinary College, University of Prince Edward Island

This is a virtual zoom seminar.  If you would like to attend, please email the organizers for connection details.