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August 2020

AARMS COVID-19 Seminar: Amy Hurford (MUN)

August 26, 2020 @ 3:00 pm - 4:30 pm
Zoom seminar

Modelling the impact of travel restrictions on COVID-19 cases in Newfoundland and Labrador Imported infections disproportionally contribute to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreaks in regions where infection prevalence is low. On May 4th, Newfoundland and Labrador implemented travel restrictions whereby non-residents could enter NL only with exemptions. As the prevalence of COVID-19 was low at the time, it is likely that the travel restrictions substantially reduced the COVID-19 epidemic in NL.  We fit a stochastic epidemic model to data describing…

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September 2020

AARMS COVID-19 Seminar: Karen Phillips (Dept of Health and Wellness, PEI) and Javier Sanchez (Atlantic Veterinary College, UPEI)

September 30, 2020 @ 3:00 pm - 4:30 pm
Zoom seminar

The Covid-19 modeling experience in Prince Edward Island Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, Atlantic Canada and particularly PEI, has experienced a low number of cases with limited community spread. This epidemiological situation has created some unique and challenging opportunities for the modelers to address the questions of interest posed by public health officers. A simple SEIR model was developed to assess the magnitude of the consequences in terms of hospitalizations, PPE, and bed requirements under a set of…

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October 2020

Dalhousie-AARMS AAMP Seminar: Julie Rowlett (Chalmers, Sweden)

October 16, 2020 @ 4:00 pm - 5:00 pm
Zoom seminar

Decisions and Disease Do you usually get a flu shot every year? Do you usually take preventive measures to avoid contracting sexually transmitted infections? It is reasonable to expect that while many people may answer `no‘ to the first question, they may answer `yes‘ to the second question. In recent joint work with my PhD student, Carl-Joar Karlsson, we have discovered a mathematical explanation for these different choices. Here I will explain mathematical models we have developed that combine the…

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November 2020

AARMS COVID-19 Seminar: Shannon LeBlanc (Dept of Health NB)

November 18, 2020 @ 3:00 pm - 4:30 pm
Zoom seminar

Importation Risk under the Northern Lights To understand the risk that an infectious traveler from other Canadian provinces and territories will enter the Northwest Territories the Government of the Northwest Territories has fitted jurisdictional reported COVID-19 transmission data to a simple SEIR model. Using the most recent epidemiological parameters for transmission we estimate the likelihood that a pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic/unreported COVID-19 case will travel to the NWT at time t. We have mapped territorial travel data collected since May 2020…

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December 2020

AARMS COVID-19 Seminar: Ali Gharouni (McMaster)

December 16, 2020 @ 3:00 pm - 4:30 pm
Zoom seminar

COVID-19 Outbreak Dynamics and Testing-Isolation Efficacy; Insights from a Simple Epidemic Model One of the main challenges in understanding COVID-19 dynamics is to estimate changes in the total level of infection in a population. The daily case count is a highly accessible form of data where observations are driven by two types of processes: (i) epidemic processes and (ii) testing processes. The challenge is then to separate these processes and understand how they interact. We developed a model that incorporates…

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February 2021

AARMS COVID-19 Seminar: Sanjeev Seahra (UNB)

February 3, 2021 @ 10:30 am - 11:30 am
Zoom seminar

COVID-19 modelling in New Brunswick and elsewhere We present a simple differential equation based model of the COVID-19 pandemic that allows for time-evolving social distancing.  We apply the model to the first 80 days of the pandemic in 24 different jurisdictions to quantify the effectiveness of government lockdowns in March 2020.  Using Bayesian methods, we then estimate model parameters relevant to the current outbreak in New Brunswick. This is a virtual zoom seminar.  If you would like to attend, please email…

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AARMS COVID-19 Seminar: JC Loredo-Osti (Memorial)

February 17, 2021 @ 10:30 am - 11:30 am
Zoom seminar

Covid-19 management in Newfoundland and Labrador Atlantic Canada and the territories have experienced a qualitatively different COVID-19 epidemic than the other Canadian provinces. The question is, do these differences suggest different best approaches to public health policy or they are just the consequence of geographic/demographic conditions? When infection prevalence is low, imported infections are not only a large fraction of all infections, but a major trigger of outbreaks. This also posses questions about the merits of travel restrictions as well…

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March 2021

AARMS COVID-19 Seminar: James Watmough (UNB)

March 3, 2021 @ 10:30 am - 11:30 am
Zoom seminar

Case importation and community spread: post-pandemic control of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in low density populations It has been just over one year and 100 million cases since we first heard of a novel coronavirus with pandemic potential. We are now all far too familiar with epidemic curves and would very much like to see the tail of this one. In this talk, I will review the simple mathematical models for the transition from pandemic to endemic and what they…

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AARMS COVID-19 Seminar: Ting-Hao Hsu (UNB)

March 17, 2021 @ 10:30 am - 11:30 am
Zoom seminar

Slow-Fast Systems in Epidemic Models Differential equations involving slow and fast time scales have been adopted in mathematical modelling to capture rapid changes occurred in the epidemic systems. Examples include outbreaks of infectious diseases and autonomous behavioural changes of individuals. I will introduce a new technic in slow-fast systems to analyze relaxation oscillations, i.e., periodic orbits with slow and fast segments, in such models. The approach is based on extending the so-called entry-exit function to multi-dimensional slow-fast systems using the…

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April 2021

AARMS COVID-19 Seminar: Ahmed Saif (Dalhousie)

April 21, 2021 @ 10:30 am - 11:30 am
Zoom seminar

A Simulation-Optimization Framework for Optimizing Response Strategies to Epidemics Epidemics require dynamic response strategies that encompass a multitude of policy alternatives and that balance health, economic and societal considerations. We propose a simulation-optimization framework to aid policymakers select closure, protection and travel policies to minimize the total number of infections under a limited budget. The proposed framework combines a modified, age-stratified SEIR compartmental model to evaluate the health impact of response strategies and a Genetic Algorithm to effectively search for…

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