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May 2020
AARMS COVID-19 Seminar: JC Loredo-Osti (MUN)
Simulating a SARS-CoV-2 model as a branching process JC Loredo-Osti (MUN) We will discuss some of the advantages of using branching processes to model an outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 in a small population where other approaches may not be as optimal. We use the NZ Aotearola model as a basis to illustrate how a 'brute force' simulation procedure can be easily implemented. This is a virtual zoom seminar. If you would like to attend, please email the organizers for connection details.
Find out more »June 2020
AARMS COVID-19 Seminar: JC Loredo-Osti (MUN)
The Euler's method and the Gillespie algorithm to simulate a stochastic SIR model (part 1) JC Loredo-Osti (MUN) In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation of the two more common procedures to simulate a stochastic compartmentalised epidemic model, the Euler's method and the Gillespie algorithm. We will also talk about extensions to the stochastic SIR model, as for example, the two ways to include a compartment for asymptomatic cases as well as extensions to account for a non-homogeneous process…
Find out more »AARMS COVID-19 Seminar: JC Loredo-Osti (MUN) – POSTPONED
The Euler’s method and the Gillespie algorithm to simulate a stochastic SIR model (part 2) JC Loredo-Osti (MUN) The second part of this presentation will be used to talk about some example of extensions to the stochastic SIR model. We will start with adding compartments that leave the fundamental structure of the model unchanged, like the ones that add a latent class or add compartments to accommodate for metapopulations, as well as incorporating the serial-time distribution to model the infectious…
Find out more »AARMS COVID-19 Seminar: Mathieu Chalifoux (Government of New Brunswick)
Planning for Covid-19: Government’s informational needs in a time of uncertainty Mathieu Chalifoux (Government of New Brunswick) In this presentation, we will go over three questions that have recently been posed to the mathematical sciences community in Fredericton, New Brunswick as a means to better understand and plan for the incidence of COVID-19 in the coming months. Further discussion will ensue with all participants as a means to discuss what type of information is useful to governments during this ongoing…
Find out more »AARMS COVID-19 Seminar: JC Loredo-Osti (MUN)
The Euler’s method and the Gillespie algorithm to simulate a stochastic SIR model (part 2) JC Loredo-Osti (MUN) The second part of this presentation will be used to talk about some example of extensions to the stochastic SIR model. We will start with adding compartments that leave the fundamental structure of the model unchanged, like the ones that add a latent class or add compartments to accommodate for metapopulations, as well as incorporating the serial-time distribution to model the infectious…
Find out more »July 2020
AARMS COVID-19 Seminar: Matthew Betti (Mount Allison)* and Jane Heffernan (York)
Scenario-based modeling of healthcare demand and PPE usage during the COVID-19 pandemic One of the big risks during the current pandemic is stress and overburdening of the healthcare system, and a possible scarcity of resources. We will present a three module model that projects possible epidemic outcomes and subsequently measures healthcare demand and PPE usage for different jurisdictions across Canada. We present as well a simple model which we fit to current cases with some novel sampling techniques which allows…
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