Importation Risk under the Northern Lights

To understand the risk that an infectious traveler from other Canadian provinces and territories will enter the Northwest Territories the Government of the Northwest Territories has fitted jurisdictional reported COVID-19 transmission data to a simple SEIR model. Using the most recent epidemiological parameters for transmission we estimate the likelihood that a pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic/unreported COVID-19 case will travel to the NWT at time t. We have mapped territorial travel data collected since May 2020 to identify the points in time that our importation risk was highest. Using the output of the importation risk model we have developed a Markov tree to assist public health decision makers in understanding the risk that these travelers pose to the public based on the testing and quarantine strategies that they choose to apply.

Shannon LeBlanc is currently an Epidemiologist at the New Brunswick Department of Health who has recently worked with the government of the Northwest Territories

This is a virtual zoom seminar.  If you would like to attend, please email the organizers for connection details.