COVID-19 Outbreak Dynamics and Testing-Isolation Efficacy; Insights from a Simple Epidemic Model

One of the main challenges in understanding COVID-19 dynamics is to estimate changes in the total level of infection in a population. The daily case count is a highly accessible form of data where observations are driven by two types of processes: (i) epidemic processes and (ii) testing processes. The challenge is then to separate these processes and understand how they interact. We developed a model that incorporates mechanistic processes of epidemic processes and testing. We have used the model to study the potential
effect of testing strategies on disease dynamics. In future work, we will develop improved methods for estimating true incidence by using data from negative as well as positive tests.

In collaboration with: Fady Abdelmalek and Drs Benjamin M Bolker, Jonathan Dushoff, David JD Earn

This is a virtual zoom seminar.  If you would like to attend, please email the organizers for connection details.  All times are given in the Atlantic timezone.