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July 2020

AARMS COVID-19 Seminar: Sana Jahedi (UNB) and James A. Yorke (Maryland)

July 15, 2020 @ 3:00 pm - 4:30 pm
Zoom seminar

When the best pandemic models are the simplest As a pandemic of coronavirus spreads across the globe, people debate policies to mitigate its severity. Many complex, highly detailed models have been developed to help policy setters make better decisions. However, the basis of these models is unlikely to be understood by non-experts. We describe the advantages of simple models for covid-19. We say a model is “simple’’ if its only parameter is the rate of contact between people in the…

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August 2020

AARMS COVID-19 Seminar: James Watmough (UNB Fredericton)

August 5, 2020 @ 3:00 pm - 4:30 pm
Zoom seminar

Simple epidemic models with importation Many provinces and territories have controlled the spread of SARS-COV-2 within their borders and are now weighing the risks and benefits of reopening internally and externally.  In this week's seminar I'll lay out some groundwork for this comparison using variations on the simple SIR model. This is a virtual zoom seminar.  If you would like to attend, please email the organizers for connection details.

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Café Mathématique: What is a model of COVID-19?

August 12, 2020 @ 1:00 pm - 3:00 pm

  Café Mathématique is a free, online public forum where anyone can learn how math underpins our understanding of the COVID-19 pandemic. Hear from a panel of experts at universities across Canada as they answer the question, “What is a model of COVID-19?”, followed by a lively discussion where audience members are encouraged to ask questions and explore ideas about modelling the pandemic. Panelists: Javier Sanchez, Associate Professor, Epidemiology, University of Prince Edward Island David Buckeridge, Professor, Epidemiology, Biostatistics &…

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AARMS COVID-19 Seminar: Acadia Covid Modelling Group

August 12, 2020 @ 3:00 pm - 4:30 pm
Zoom seminar

Talk 1: Estimating underreporting of COVID-19 cases using fatality data Led by Margaret Hopkins Talk 2: Individual-based modelling of COVID-19 on the Acadia University campus with a realistic contact structure Led by the Acadia Modelling Group The Acadia Modelling Group consists of D. Currie, C. Hooper, M. Hopkins, R. Karsten, Y. Li, F. Mendivil, and H. Teismann.  This is a virtual zoom seminar.  If you would like to attend, please email the organizers for connection details.

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AARMS COVID-19 Seminar: Amy Hurford (MUN)

August 26, 2020 @ 3:00 pm - 4:30 pm
Zoom seminar

Modelling the impact of travel restrictions on COVID-19 cases in Newfoundland and Labrador Imported infections disproportionally contribute to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreaks in regions where infection prevalence is low. On May 4th, Newfoundland and Labrador implemented travel restrictions whereby non-residents could enter NL only with exemptions. As the prevalence of COVID-19 was low at the time, it is likely that the travel restrictions substantially reduced the COVID-19 epidemic in NL.  We fit a stochastic epidemic model to data describing…

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September 2020

AARMS COVID-19 Seminar: Karen Phillips (Dept of Health and Wellness, PEI) and Javier Sanchez (Atlantic Veterinary College, UPEI)

September 30, 2020 @ 3:00 pm - 4:30 pm
Zoom seminar

The Covid-19 modeling experience in Prince Edward Island Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, Atlantic Canada and particularly PEI, has experienced a low number of cases with limited community spread. This epidemiological situation has created some unique and challenging opportunities for the modelers to address the questions of interest posed by public health officers. A simple SEIR model was developed to assess the magnitude of the consequences in terms of hospitalizations, PPE, and bed requirements under a set of…

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October 2020

Dalhousie-AARMS AAMP Seminar: Julie Rowlett (Chalmers, Sweden)

October 16, 2020 @ 4:00 pm - 5:00 pm
Zoom seminar

Decisions and Disease Do you usually get a flu shot every year? Do you usually take preventive measures to avoid contracting sexually transmitted infections? It is reasonable to expect that while many people may answer `no‘ to the first question, they may answer `yes‘ to the second question. In recent joint work with my PhD student, Carl-Joar Karlsson, we have discovered a mathematical explanation for these different choices. Here I will explain mathematical models we have developed that combine the…

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November 2020

AARMS COVID-19 Seminar: Shannon LeBlanc (Dept of Health NB)

November 18, 2020 @ 3:00 pm - 4:30 pm
Zoom seminar

Importation Risk under the Northern Lights To understand the risk that an infectious traveler from other Canadian provinces and territories will enter the Northwest Territories the Government of the Northwest Territories has fitted jurisdictional reported COVID-19 transmission data to a simple SEIR model. Using the most recent epidemiological parameters for transmission we estimate the likelihood that a pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic/unreported COVID-19 case will travel to the NWT at time t. We have mapped territorial travel data collected since May 2020…

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December 2020

AARMS COVID-19 Seminar: Ali Gharouni (McMaster)

December 16, 2020 @ 3:00 pm - 4:30 pm
Zoom seminar

COVID-19 Outbreak Dynamics and Testing-Isolation Efficacy; Insights from a Simple Epidemic Model One of the main challenges in understanding COVID-19 dynamics is to estimate changes in the total level of infection in a population. The daily case count is a highly accessible form of data where observations are driven by two types of processes: (i) epidemic processes and (ii) testing processes. The challenge is then to separate these processes and understand how they interact. We developed a model that incorporates…

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February 2021

AARMS COVID-19 Seminar: Sanjeev Seahra (UNB)

February 3, 2021 @ 10:30 am - 11:30 am
Zoom seminar

COVID-19 modelling in New Brunswick and elsewhere We present a simple differential equation based model of the COVID-19 pandemic that allows for time-evolving social distancing.  We apply the model to the first 80 days of the pandemic in 24 different jurisdictions to quantify the effectiveness of government lockdowns in March 2020.  Using Bayesian methods, we then estimate model parameters relevant to the current outbreak in New Brunswick. This is a virtual zoom seminar.  If you would like to attend, please email…

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